Are Royals on Verge of Next Winning Era?

Today, I was looking back at past Royals seasons on Baseball Reference -- an incredible site for any stat-heads out there like myself. So, I was doing some research about the point where Kansas City's success of the 1970s and 1980s began, and I found my eyes drawn to a pair of seasons -- 1974 and 1975.

Now, this is not to say that I think the Royals' good fortune between 1975 and 1985 was definitively kick-started in 1974. I'm sure there will be someone who takes the time to write me to point out that it all actually began in 1973, or 1972, with the acquisition of such-and-such a player. That's not my point. What's interesting, though, is that Kansas City's losing season in 1974 seems to have some similarities to last year's losing campaign.

In 1974, the Royals had, by all accounts, a disappointing year. The team went 8-11 in April, before heating up over the next several months to the point it was 10 games over .500 on August 25. But then Kansas City took a nosedive in the standings by losing 27 of its final 36 games to finish in fifth place in the American League Western Division at 77-85.

Last year's team also got off to a slow start, and stood at 19-35 at the end of May. But the Royals responded by going a combined 41-39 in June, July, and August to improve to 60-74 heading into the final month of the season. However, just like in 1974, the team struggled mightily in September by going 9-19 to end the year in fifth place in the A.L. Central at 69-93.

Offensively, believe it or not, the 2007 Royals had better numbers in many statistical categories than their 1974 counterparts. Here is a comparison of some key team stats (1974's total vs. 2007's total): at bats (5,582 vs. 5,534), runs scored (667 vs. 706), hits (1,448 vs. 1,447), batting average (.259 vs. .261), doubles (232 vs. 300), triples (42 vs. 46), home runs (89 vs. 102), and runs batted in (623 vs. 660). Strikingly similar numbers, wouldn't you agree?

The key differences were that the 1974 team struck out 301 fewer times, while drawing 122 more walks, and stealing almost twice as many bases (146 to 78).

And then there was the pitching, where the 1974 staff of Steve Busby (22-14, 3.39), Paul Splittorff (13-19, 4.10), Al Fitzmorris (13-6, 2.79), Bruce Dal Canton (8-10, 3.13), and Nelson Briles (5-7, 4.02) was much deeper than the 2007 staff. Beyond Gil Meche (9-13, 3.67) and Brian Bannister (12-9, 3.87), last year's starting pitching was a crazy mix of washed up veterans and unproven youngsters -- that is, until Zack Greinke rejoined the rotation late in the year.

Of course, today's game is much different than it was in 1974, but stay with me here. The 1975 season, in which the Royals rebounded to go 91-71 and finish second in the A.L. West, was the start of an incredible 11-year stretch where Kansas City was a combined 179 games above .500 in regular season play. And I think the 2008 Royals could be on the brink of making a similar leap back to playing winning baseball.

With a young and talented team, whose average age was about 28 years old -- just like the 2008 Royals -- Kansas City made a drastic turnaround in 1975 under the guidance of new manager Whitey Herzog, who took over for Jack McKeon after a 50-46 start. Herzog led the Royals to a 41-26 record to reach that final mark of 91-71.

So, the $64,000 question is, can new manager Trey Hillman also guide the 2008 Royals to a winning record, and begin another successful chapter in Kansas City's baseball history?

Here's a look at the Royals' 1975 Opening Day starting lineup versus the Royals' projected 2008 starting lineup* (with the players' previous year stats in parenthesis):

1. Freddie Patek, SS, 30 years old/entering 8th MLB season
(.225/.324/.298, 72 R, 121 H, 18 2B/6 3B/3 HR, 38 RBI, 33-48 SB, 77 BB, 69 SO, 77 OPS+)
1. David DeJesus, CF, 28 years old/entering 5th MLB season
(.260/.351/.372, 101 R, 157 H, 29 2B, 9 3B, 7 HR, 58 RBI, 10-14 SB, 64 BB, 83 SO, 89 OPS+)

2. Amos Otis, CF, 27 years old/entering 7th MLB season
(.284/.348/.438, 87 R, 157 H, 31 2B, 9 3B, 12 HR, 73 RBI, 18-23 SB, 58 BB, 67 SO, 121 OPS+)
2. Mark Grudzielanek, 2B, 37 years old/entering 14th MLB season
(.302/.346/.426, 70 R, 137 H, 32 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 51 RBI, 1-3 SB, 23 BB, 60 SO, 100 OPS+)

3. John Mayberry, 1B, 26 years old/entering 6th MLB season
(.234/.358/.424, 63 R, 100 H, 13 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 69 RBI, 4-6 SB, 77 BB, 72 SO, 120 OPS+)
3. Mark Teahen, LF, 26 years old/entering 4th MLB season
(.285/.353/.410, 78 R, 155 H, 31 2B, 8 3B, 7 HR, 60 RBI, 13-18 SB, 55 BB, 127 SO, 98 OPS+)

4. Hal McRae, LF, 29 years old/entering 6th MLB season
(.310/.375/.475, 71 R, 167 H, 36 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 88 RBI, 11-19 SB, 54 BB, 68 SO, 139 OPS+)
4. Jose Guillen, RF, 31 years old/entering 12th MLB season
(.290/.353/.460, 84 R, 172 H, 28 2B, 2 3B, 23 HR, 99 RBI, 5-6 SB, 41 BB, 118 SO, 116 OPS+)

5. Harmon Killebrew, DH, 38 years old/entering 21st and final MLB season
(.222/.312/.360, 28 R, 74 H, 7 2B, 0 3B, 13 HR, 54 RBI, 0-0 SB, 45 BB, 61 SO, 90 OPS+)
5. Alex Gordon, 3B, 24 years old/entering 2nd MLB season
(.247/.314/.411, 60 R, 134 H, 36 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 14-18 SB, 41 BB, 137 SO, 87 OPS+)

6. George Brett, 3B, 21 years old/entering 2nd MLB season
(.282/.313/.363, 49 R, 129 H, 21 2B, 5 3B, 2 HR, 47 RBI, 8-13 SB, 21 BB, 38 SO, 91 OPS+)
6. Billy Butler, 1B or DH, 21 years old/entering 2nd MLB season
(.292/.347/.447, 38 R, 96 H, 23 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 52 RBI, 0-0 SB, 27 BB, 55 SO, 105 OPS+)

7. Vada Pinson, RF, 36 years old/entering 18th and final MLB season
(.276/.312/.374, 46 R, 112 H, 18 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 21-26 SB, 21 BB, 45 SO, 93 OPS+)
7. Ryan Shealy, DH or 1B, 28 years old/entering 3rd MLB season
(.267/.332/.402, 53 R, 105 H, 21 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 0-1 SB, 35 BB, 109 SO, 88 OPS+) **

8. Cookie Rojas, 2B, 36 years old/entering 14th MLB season
(.271/.309/.339, 52 R, 147 H, 17 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 8-12 SB, 30 BB, 43 SO, 83 OPS+)
8. John Buck, C, 27 years old/entering 5th MLB season
(.222/.308/.429, 41 R, 77 H, 18 2B, 0 3B, 18 HR, 48 RBI, 0-1 SB, 36 BB, 92 SO, 90 OPS+)

9. Fran Healy, C, 28 years old/entering 5th MLB season
(.252/.343/.375, 59 R, 112 H, 24 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 16-24 SB, 62 BB, 73 SO, 103 OPS+)
9. Tony Pena, SS, 27 years old/entering 2nd MLB season
(.267/.284/.356, 58 R, 136 H, 25 2B, 7 3B, 2 HR, 47 RBI, 5-11 SB, 10 BB, 78 SO, 66 OPS+)

SP: Steve Busby, RHP, 25 years old/entering 3rd MLB season
(22-14/3.39/198 SO, 38 GS, 20 CG, 3 SHO, 292.3 IP, 284 H, 118 R, 110 ER, 92 BB, 112 ERA+)
SP: Gil Meche, RHP, 29 years old/entering 8th MLB season
(9-13/3.67/156 SO, 34 GS, 1 CG, 0 SHO, 216.0 IP, 218 H, 98 R, 88 ER, 62 BB, 128 ERA+)
*2008 projected lineup does not factor Jose Guillen's pending 15-day suspension
**Ryan Shealy's 2007 numbers are projections for a 120-game season

Granted, it's very difficult to compare and contrast two teams that are more than 30 years apart. But looking at the lineups for both teams, and factoring in the energetic and motivational managing style of Hillman, it's easy to wonder whether Kansas City is about to put an end to the frustration and turmoil that has surrounded the organization for the past decade-plus.

It could turn out that 2008 is actually this era's 1974. But it never hurts to dream, and anything is possible.