Kyle Davies is Key for Royals in 2009

I'm shelving the dream of Orlando Hudson-to-the-Royals for now, as it seems more and more likely that David Glass has really put a stop to Kansas City's offseason spending. I know, it's easy for me to sit here at the computer and figure out ways to spend Glass's money, but it just seems like adding Hudson, even at a "bargain" cost somewhere between $4 and 5 million, is not likely to happen. Dammit.

So, let's take a look at a player who's already in the fold for the 2009 season: right-handed starting pitcher Kyle Davies. I think the performance of Davies in Kansas City's rotation this season will go a long way toward determining whether this is a great season -- with the potential to reach the playoffs -- or simply another slight improvement for the franchise.

Davies is coming off a 2008 season in which he recorded career-best totals for wins (9), ERA (4.06), ERA+ (105), and WHIP (1.45) after being called up from Class AAA Omaha in late May. He finished with a record of 9-7, making 21 starts, and allowing 121 hits in 113 innings pitched.

In his second season working with Royals pitching coach Bob McClure, the 25-year old Davies finished with 71 strikeouts and 43 walks for a K/BB ratio of 1.65, the best of his career. And his 4.06 ERA was lower than the league average (4.27) for the first time in his four-year career at the Major League level.

Davies seemed to put things together late in the 2008 season, as he combined to go 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA in five September starts. In those games, he allowed just 22 hits in 31.2 innings, holding batters to a line of .198/.246/.270 with 24 strikeouts and just seven walks. His WHIP was a solid 0.92 during that span, and he surrendered just one home run.

I'm sure there are those who will try to attribute Davies' impressive September numbers to the fact that many teams utilize players called up from the Minor Leagues late in the season. But if he can start the 2009 season with the type of confident mindset he honed during those late-season starts, Davies could be the type of #3 starter the Royals have been hoping for.

Davies was originally drafted by the Atlanta Braves with the 29th pick (135th overall) in the 4th Round of the 2001 amateur draft.* A native of Stockbridge, Ga., Davies was acquired by Kansas City in a deal that sent closer Octavio Dotel to Atlanta at the trade deadline on July 31, 2007.

*The Royals had selected catcher John Draper with the ninth pick in that same round. In five Minor League seasons, none higher than Class AA, Draper batted .245/.311/.323 with just 12 home runs and 226 strikeouts in 1,357 at bats. With the fourth pick of the fifth round that year, just five spots before the Royals selected, the Phillies drafted a guy named Ryan Howard out of Missouri State. Thanks, Allard.

Davies always showed promise as a Minor Leaguer, combining to go 18-6 with a 2.97 ERA during 2004-07 in Atlanta's farm system prior to the trade to the Royals. Overall, in eight Minor League seasons (including time in Omaha during 2008), Davies owns a mark of 42-22 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. In 595 innings pitched, he has allowed just 498 hits, while fanning 576 batters and walking just 215.

But he's had his struggles facing Major League batters. In parts of three seasons with Atlanta, Davies was 14-21 with a 6.15 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP.

Nevertheless, Kansas City general manager Dayton Moore knew what he was getting in Davies, and figured it was worth the risk -- and a little criticism from some Royals fans -- despite Davies' failure to stick around for long in the Major Leagues.

"He's a young pitcher who's trying to establish himself," Moore said after the trade. "I don't pay much attention to young pitchers' statistics. If you did, John Smoltz and Tommy Glavine never would have gotten off the ground."

Since coming to Kansas City, Davies' numbers have improved somewhat, resulting in a combined record of 12-14 over the past two years with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP.

That doesn't seem like much of a jump, but it's his numbers during most of the 2008 season that have Royals fans hoping for something great from the guy who spent this offseason doing construction work for his father's company.

He began last season at Class AAA Omaha, where he posted an impressive record of 6-2 with a 2.03 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. After his recall to the Royals, Davies got off to a sizzling start by going 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA over his first four starts in Kansas City.

He then ran into a rough stretch of three starts -- versus San Francisco, St. Louis, and Baltimore -- in which he went 0-1 with an 11.57 ERA. Take away those three games last season, and Davies was 9-6 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.

Let me repeat that for everyone. Other than three straight bad outings between June 22 and July 3 last season, Kyle Davies had a 3.20 earned run average for the rest of the season, totaling 101.1 innings pitched.

That's not a bad sample size, and those are the kind of numbers that can hush the naysayers who think that Davies only pitched well in September last season. They're also the kind of numbers that could make him a very effective No. 3 starter for the Royals.

If Davies can continue to improve, and Kansas City gets the type of performances it expects from its top two starting pitchers -- Gil Meche and Zack Greinke -- then I'd argue this team can compete for the American League Central crown in 2009.

Kyle Davies Photo Credit: Gail Burton/AP

Meche Wins, as KC Squeaks By Angels

It sure wasn't easy, but Gil Meche earned his first win of the season Wednesday night in Anaheim, as the Kansas City Royals scored three runs early and then held on for a 3-2 victory against the Los Angeles Angels.

Meche, who entered the game with a record of 0-2 and a 7.13 earned run average, scattered six hits over six innings, and worked his way out of trouble several times. He struck out two, walked three, and lowered his ERA to 6.08.

Four Royals relievers combined to hold Los Angeles (9-7) to a pair of hits over the final three innings, and Joakim Soria struck out two batters in a 1-2-3 ninth inning to record his fifth save in five opportunities this season.

Kansas City (9-6) didn't waste any time in getting the offense on track, as the Royals jumped on Angels starter Jered Weaver (1-3) for two runs on five hits in the opening frame.

Center fielder Joey Gathright led off the game with a bunt single, but was then picked off first base. However, consecutive singles by second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, left fielder Mark Teahen, and designated hitter Billy Butler all followed, with Butler's hit to right-center scoring Grudzielanek. Third baseman Alex Gordon then drove in Teahen with a two-out single to right.

The Royals scored what turned out to be the winning run in the second inning when Gathright led off with a single to left, stole second base, and then scored when the Angels' Weaver dropped the throw from first baseman Casey Kotchman on a grounder by Grudzielanek.

In the fourth, Los Angeles (9-7) cut the lead to 3-2 with a two-out rally against Meche. Designated hitter Garrett Anderson singled, moved to third on a double to right-center by center fielder Torii Hunter, and then Kotchman's single to left-center scored both runners.

Meche dodged bullets in the fifth and sixth innings, working out of jams with two runners on base each time. In the fifth, the Angels had runners at second and third with only one out, but Meche snagged a grounder back to the mound and caught the runner at third in a rundown, before ending the inning by getting right fielder Vladimir Guerrero on a grounder to Grudzielanek.

Gathright and Teahen each had three hits for the Royals, with Teahen's double to center in the ninth inning coming just inches shy of a home run. Grudzielanek and Gordon both had two hits, while catcher Miguel Olivo and right fielder Jose Guillen both had doubles.

The teams will wrap up the short two-game series Thursday night at 9:05 p.m., with Kansas City right-hander Brett Tomko (1-1, 2.08) facing Angels' righty Jon Garland (1-2, 5.50).

Miguel Olivo/Joakim Soria Photo Credit: Chris Carlson/AP

Royals Need Improvement from Meche

The Kansas City Royals have gotten off to a solid start to the 2008 season, winning eight of their first 14 games, and moving back and forth between first and second place in the American Legaue Central standings. But the team's ace, Gil Meche, has yet to contribute to that success.

Through his first three starts, Meche is 0-2 with an elevated 7.13 earned run average. His control has been off, as evidenced by 10 bases on balls issued in just 17.2 innings pitched, and he just seems to be struggling to throw breaking balls for strikes.

I was thinking I could simply look up the stats from Meche's first three starts of 2007, compare them to the numbers from his first three starts of 2008, and it would reveal an obvious reason for his stuggles, but his numbers are pretty consistent to what he had done to this point last year.

Through three games in 2007, Meche had thrown 296 pitches (187 for strikes), had allowed three home runs, and opponents were hitting .288/.329/.438 against him. Through three games this year, Meche has thrown 294 pitches (183 for strikes), has allowed three home runs, and opponents are batting .275/.367/.493 against him.

Those are fairly similar numbers for what is a drastic difference in ERA from one season to the next. I was particularly amazed at the similarities in his pitch totals, and the numbers that were thrown for strikes, because the biggest difference in 2007 and 2008 for Meche is in bases on balls. Last year at this point, Meche had surrendered four walks, but this year's total is 10, which also explains the difference in OBP.

Since Meche's control has been iffy, he might simply be throwing more balls over the middle of the plate so far this season. Those balls are getting hit hard, as nine of the 19 hits he's allowed this year have gone for extra bases, compared to just five of 21 at this point last year.

Meche also hasn't been helped by a continuing lack of run support when he's on the mound. In 2007, the Royals scored an average of just 3.84 runs per game when Meche pitched, which ranked last in the A.L. and was the fourth-worst average in all of baseball.

Kansas City added free agent slugger Jose Guillen to the middle of its lineup during the offseason, which many hoped would bolster the Royals' offensive woes. But Guillen enters tonight's game with a .158 batting average and has yet to hit a home run in a Royals uniform.

Guillen isn't the only player to blame for Meche's lack of run support, but his support this season has been even worse than last year's, at just 2.79 runs per game. I believe that much of that has to do with the fact that, as the Royals' ace, Meche is often matched up against opposing teams' aces. It's not simply a matter of bad luck, as some people seem to think.

Whatever the issue has been through three games, Kansas City fans are hoping that Meche can figure things out, tighten up his control, and find the form that helped him finish last season with nine wins and a 3.67 ERA.

Meche gets his fourth start of the season tonight in Anaheim against a tough Angels lineup. I'm hoping we see the return of last year's consistency on display once again. The Royals need their ace to be just that.

Gil Meche Photo Credit: Paul Battaglia/AP

Twins Shut Out Royals, 5-0

Livan Hernandez must have the Royals' number. For the second time in a week, Hernandez earned a victory against Kansas City, as he pitched seven shutout innings to help the Minnesota Twins post a 5-0 win Friday night at Kauffman Stadium.

Hernandez (3-0), who was signed as a free agent during the offseason, allowed seven hits and struck out three to become one of the first pitchers in Major League Baseball with three victories this season. In two wins against the Royals, Hernandez has given up 14 hits and just four earned runs in 14 innings, while striking out five and walking just one batter.

For the Royals (6-4), Gil Meche's early-season struggles continued. Kansas City's staff ace fell to 0-2 with an ugly 7.13 ERA after surrendering five earned runs on five hits in six innings. Meche struck out six Minnesota batters, but was hurt by the four walks he issued.

The Twins (5-5) scored four runs in the second inning, two of which came on a line-drive double to left by Carlos Gomez that got over the head of Royals left fielder Mark Teahen. Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau closed out the scoring in the top of the third inning, hitting his third home run of the year into the Royals' bullpen.

For Kansas City, third baseman Alex Gordon was the only Royals player with multiple hits, as he went 2-for-4 with a double. Every Kansas City starter had a hit, except for right fielder Jose Guillen, who was 0-for-4 and had his slumping average fall to .146 to start the year.

The Royals had a rally going in the bottom of the fifth, as shortstop Alberto Callaspo, center fielder Joey Gathright, and Teahen all singled to load the bases. But Guillen struck out swinging, and designated hitter Billy Butler grounded out to shortstop to end the threat.

The teams play the middle game of the series Saturday at 6:10 p.m. Right-hander Brett Tomko (1-0, 1.29) will throw for the Royals against the Twins' Boof Bonser (0-2, 4.15).

Winning Each Series is the Key

This might seem like one of those no-brainer statements that make you utter, "Well, duh" to yourself, but the focus of the Kansas City Royals heading into each series this season simply needs to be on winning that series.

The more times the Royals are able to take two-of-three, or three-of-four, the better. Obviously, winning at a .667 (or .750) clip will keep Kansas City at or near the top of the American League Central standings all season long.

By losing, 4-3, to the Minnesota Twins last night at the Metrodome in Minneapolis, though, they've made that a difficult task to accomplish in only their second series of the year. The Royals hope to get their foot out of the bucket today when right-hander Gil Meche takes the bump at 1:10 p.m.

Meche (0-0) pitched a decent game in Detroit during Monday's Opening Day. It certainly wasn't his "A" game, but it was good enough to give the Royals a chance to eventually rally against the Tigers and win the game, 5-4, on a bloop single to center by Tony Pena. Meche went six innings, allowing eight hits and three earned runs, while striking out five and walking four.

The Twins counter with their newly-acquired ace, Livan Hernandez (1-0), who helped Minnesota post a 3-2 victory against the Angels on Opening Day at the Dome. It sure makes for a good pitching matchup, which unfortunately won't be on TV (at least not in the Twin Cities). So I talked my wife into letting me head out to the game today, and I'll be there tomorrow, as well.

I'm hoping Meche and the Royals can put themselves back in position to win this series with a strong outing today, and I'm also hoping to see a few lineup changes. Catcher Miguel Olivo is back from his four-game suspension to start the season, and will make his first appearance in a Royals uniform this afternoon. I'd also like to see Alberto Callaspo get an opportunity to play shortstop, as Pena has struggled out the gates to an .067/.067/.067 line.

We'll see what happens, but today's game is crucial. To be 4-1 after today would seem so much better than to fall back to 3-2. After beginning the year with such promise by sweeping Detroit, it would be a real disappointment to lose this series against the Twins.

Let's go, Royals!